New analysis suggests that the surging PV market will withstand public budget restraints and the weakening of the euro in currency markets to continue its expansion into 2011, with over 19 GW of installations, before softening only slightly in 2012.
Consensus is now growing that at least 15 GW of PV systems will be installed globally in 2010, up from 7.2 GW in 2009.
Transparent project pipelines, emerging clarity on feed-in tariff (FIT) clarity, and overflowing advance order books for suppliers are conspiring to make this a reasonable possibility, iSuppli for example is forecasting a 15.7 GW market this year.
However, debate over how 2011 will shape up for the industry is rife, with questions raging over possible market dips in Germany and Italy as FIT cuts take effect. But analysis suggests this will not be the case, with aggressive growth in both set to continue.
A notable drop-out during 2011 is likely to be the Czech Republic, where new installations are set to plunge from the gigawatt level to just one fifth of that. After introducing a moratorium on grid connections in 2010, the government in September said it would reduce FITs for ground installations and restrict funding to systems of 500 kW or less from March 2011.
