There is a need for a shift in focus on solar markets in Africa away from donor and rural electrification projects to commercial and productive investments. There is also a need for the international PV industry to aggressively invest in the development of solar markets and not to leave it up to aid and relief organisations. This must be based on the need to move – towards grid-connected and urban markets. As part of this process there is a need to engage and educate African governments about the current global status of the solar sector and help them build frameworks for industry growth.
Markets for small off-grid systems, those below 100 Wp, are important to kickstart solar industries, but they will be less important in the long term as demand for them begins to fall.
It is also useful to have an idea of where marketing and development efforts will lead in the long term. 'Off-grid rural solar development' in Africa has dominated discussion for so long that we seem to have lost the bigger picture. Where does the solar industry want to be in Africa in 10 years Leaving aside the 'rural electrification' impact, which is more attractive for a solar company: 20,000 solar home systems at 50 Wp or 500 systems of 2 kW each Both will result in 1 MW of sales.
Kenya's so-called 'solar PV success story' is a good example of this. Its focus on small systems – to the exclusion of larger commercial or grid-connected systems – and has resulted in an annual PV market of 1.5 MW that is low-tech, over-the-counter and dominated by small products. But the market is stagnating.
Continued efforts by aid groups to build sales in 'poverty markets' will likely increase the depth and accessibility of small scale lighting systems. However, this will not build a market with a 20 MW/year solar demand of a scale that is interesting to larger PV supply companies. No matter their importance to the rural poor, LED lanterns with 1 W modules fall into the realm of the fast moving goods providers from Asia, not solar PV companies.
If healthy markets that are multi-dimensional and sustainable are to develop, solar advocates must prepare the ground for the variety of viable niches that will be part of a healthy long-term solar market. In addition to village electrification, this includes off-grid markets such as telecoms, tourism, business and pumping as well as grid-tied and utility-scale markets.
Africa is not solely a poverty market and, in the long term, middle class and commercial groups will do far more to develop solar markets than procurement-driven public sector projects or the efforts of humanitarian groups.
Every car salesperson knows that, when a customer enters a showroom looking for a luxury car there is probably no need to show the second-hand hatchbacks. But, in Africa, the solar sales approach shows high-end customers bicycles, not limousines. Africa's most important buyers go for generator sets because they see generators as being 'classy' and practical solutions – and generator dealers latch on to this. Solar agents do not recognise this market.
