German OTC prompt power prices rose Monday to their highest level in ten weeks as temperatures and wind power output were set to remain below average levels, while a drop in solar output and plant maintenance lowered supplies, keeping the system tight at times, a trader said.
Baseload power for delivery on Tuesday was last heard before 12:00 London time at Eur53.40/MWh, up Eur4.90 from where Monday last traded on Friday, at its highest level since February 15, Platts data shows.
Peakload was last heard at Eur59.25/MWh, up Eur5.15 from Monday's price on Friday, also at its highest since February 15.
However, EPEX SPOT settled day-ahead base Eur2.19 below OTC at Eur51.21/MWh, while day-ahead peakload settled Eur1.32 below OTC at Eur57.93/MWh. On the day, the EPEX SPOT settlement was little changed after Sunday's auction for Monday power surprised on the upside, according to a market source.
"The [spot] market is still nervous and tight, but OTC at 60 [Eur/MWh] for peakload is maybe a bit of an overreaction and the lower exchange settle did not surprise me," a trader said, adding that the exchange settled already higher at the weekend due to a number of outages and maintenance issues, which may have triggered a more bullish sentiment in OTC trading this morning.
"The next days will be very interesting as the fundamentals are changing with temperatures rising [which will see demand in France drop strongly and cross-border flows possibly reversing] and wind rising above 10 GW as well, mainly on Thursday," he said.
Wind power generation for Tuesday was forecast little changed in a range between 4-5 GW for average baseload, according to a market source. Solar power output was forecast to drop to 4 GW for average peakload hours Tuesday, the source added.
Nuclear production will remain below 8 GW with only six of the country's nine reactors online for week 17. The 1.4 GW Grohnde reactor returned to the grid Sunday, while the 1.3 GW Grafenrheinfeld reactor came offline Saturday for planned maintenance until May 16.
Overall, available conventional plant capacity was pegged at 50 GW for Tuesday, up from a 48.3 GW forecast for Monday, considerably below last Friday's forecast for Monday, according to data from EEX transparency.
Temperatures across Germany will remain below the seasonal average with CustomWeather forecasting Dusseldorf at 4 degrees Celsius below the norm Tuesday and Wednesday, but rising sharply from Thursday, reaching 5 C above the seasonal average at the weekend.
On the near curve, prices inched higher with May base up 20 euro cent to Eur40.65/MWh. Further forward, Cal 13 base dropped 15 euro cent to Eur51/MWh amid a generally bearish wider energy complex.
