German day-ahead power prices inched higher Monday as wind power output was forecast to almost halve Tuesday, remaining below average levels for the coming days, while solar output was set to rise strongly from Wednesday onwards, keeping a lid on peakload prices, according to traders.
Baseload power for delivery on Tuesday was last heard before 12:00 London time at Eur47.25/MWh, up just Eur2.25 from where Monday last traded on Friday. Tuesday peakload was last heard at Eur51.75/MWh, up Eur1.50 from Monday's price on Friday.
EPEX SPOT settled day-ahead base 65 euro cent above OTC at Eur47.90/MWh, while day-ahead peakload settled 68 euro cent above OTC at Eur52.43/MWh.
"Wind will drop below average, but prices will remain bearish as there is no pressure on demand from the mild temperatures and Germany and France are getting much closer now," a trader said. "Solar will be getting very strong from Wednesday, but peakload [prices] won't drop below offpeak [prices]."
Wind power generation in Germany was forecast to roughly halve to around 4 GW for average baseload Tuesday, according to a market source.
Solar power output was forecast to remain subdued Tuesday due to still strong cloud coverage, but was set to rise strongly from Wednesday, the source said.
Temperatures across Germany will be consistently above the seasonal norm this week, according to the latest CustomWeather data. Market sources said temperatures are now nearing a demand-neutral level due to falling heating demand, but will be impacted by the onset of the snow-melt in the Alps.
Further out on the prompt, week-ahead base for week 12 was heard at Eur42.50/MWh compared to a Eur43.75/MWh settle for this week on Friday.
On the curve, April base dropped 75 euro cent to Eur43.35/MWh, while Q2 base fell 70 euro cent to Eur43.40/MWh.
Further forward, Cal 13 base eased 75 euro cent to Eur51.95/MWh on the back of lower EUA carbon allowances, which fell below Eur8/mt for the Dec 12 contract for the first time in almost four weeks.