German prompt power was stable Wednesday as a drop in wind power output was offset by falling demand ahead of the Christmas holidays and temperatures rising above the seasonal norm, a trader said.
Forward power prices inched lower again after Tuesday's sharp rises as EU carbon allowances shed some of the previous session's gains.
Baseload power for day-ahead delivery was last heard 25 euro cents lower at Eur48.25/MWh, while peakload last traded 35 euro cents lower at Eur55/MWh.
EPEX Spot closed the baseload price for Thursday Eur1.40 above OTC, but down on the day at Eur49.65/MWh, while peakload settled Eur1.28 above OTC at Eur56.28/MWh, also down on the day, but above the market-coupled French spot.
"Pretty stable overall on the spot, although Germany was getting a bit tight some hours, but as there is no cold weather in France, they can send power in almost every hour," a trader said. "Wind will rise again for the weekend, but a lot of plants will come offline as no one can afford to let his plants run for three days below 30 [Eur/MWh]," he added.
Wind power generation was forecast to fall further to just 1.5 GW for Thursday average peak hours, down from a 4.5 GW forecast for Wednesday, a market source said. However, wind production will pick up again later during Thursday, rising to 6 GW for Friday and an above average 10 GW for Saturday, the source added.
Temperatures across Germany are forecast to rise above the seasonal average Thursday with CustomWeather predicting Dusseldorf 2 degrees Celsius above and Hamburg even 3 C above the December norm, rising as high as 6 C above on Friday.
Conventional power plant availability for Thursday was pegged at 58.1 GW, little changed from Wednesday's forecast, data from EEX's transparency website showed.
Nuclear availability in Germany remains at its full 12 GW capacity with all nine remaining reactors in Germany fully available to the grid.
Further out on the prompt, prices were also little changed with the generally mild weather outlook confirmed over the Christmas period and weekend power trading at Eur29.75/MWh and week-ahead base at Eur39.75/MWh.
On the curve, most contracts shed some of Tuesday's gains as EU carbon allowances fell after surging more than 20% in the previous session. January base shed 25 euro cents to Eur51.35/MWh, while Q1 base was 35 euro cents lower at Eur52.15/MWh after both rising more than Eur1 in the previous session.
Further forward, Cal 12 base shed 25 euro cents to trade at Eur52.20/MWh just before 12:00 London time as EUA Dec 12 carbon traded more than 50 euro cents lower at Eur8.40/mt.