Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government is struggling to weather its worst crisis as Communist allies threaten to end support, and even if the coalition scrapes through its stability is likely to be badly dented.
The crisis – triggered by the opposition of the left parties to a historic civilian nuclear cooperation deal between India and the United States – was initially considered to be mere anti-American posturing by the Communists.
But with Singh refusing to give in and daring the Communists to withdraw the support of their 60 MPs in parliament, the confrontation has deteriorated into a battle of political egos, analysts said.
"I don't think we have reached a point of no return," said B.G. Verghese, a political analyst at New Delhi's Center for Policy Research. "But we are on the edge."
The Communists, who now have the most lawmakers in parliament in their history, could never hope to better that performance and would therefore not want to push for an election, he said.
"But you never know. They also have their extremists and adventurists who may want to go for the brink," Verghese added.
The Communists – made up of four parties in parliament – have been critical of the government's growing friendship with Washington and opposed the nuclear deal, saying it hurts India's sovereignty and draws it into the US' strategic embrace.
The deal aims to end three decades of American sanctions on nuclear trade with India and give it access to nuclear fuel and equipment to help meet its soaring energy needs, even though it has tested nuclear weapons and rejected non-proliferation pacts.
Besides being seen as the cornerstone of a new warmth between the two once-estranged countries, the deal is also considered one of India's biggest foreign policy triumphs in decades and the most significant achievement of Singh's three years in power.
Yesterday, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee said the government was looking for ways out of the logjam.
A debate in parliament next week over the deal and some mollycoddling of the Communists by giving them fresh assurances that their concerns would be addressed could help take some of the steam out, political analysts said.
