Iran won't be able to enrich enough uranium for a nuclear weapon until late 2009, and even then, is “very unlikely'' to produce a bomb until the next decade, according to a U.S. intelligence report.
The National Intelligence Estimate — the consensus view of the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies — states that the Iranians suspended their nuclear program in 2003, and as of mid-2007 the agencies had “moderate confidence'' that Iran still hadn't restarted it.
“Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005,'' according to the classified report's key judgments, which the Office of the Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell released to the media.
The agencies also assess “with moderate confidence'' that Iran would have the technical knowledge to build a nuclear weapon between 2010 and 2015. Yet, they say possible technical snags may make it difficult for the Iranians to produce a weapon until after 2015, according to the findings.
