German prompt power prices remained bearish Wednesday due to ample renewable supply from wind and solar, although an expected drop in wind during afternoon and evening hours Thursday lifted day-ahead peakload prices, a trader said.
Baseload power for next-day delivery was last heard before 12:00 London time at Eur44.70/MWh, down just 5 euro cents day-on-day, while peakload rose Eur1.25 to Eur48.25/MWh in OTC trading.
EPEX SPOT settled Thursday base Eur1.20 above OTC at Eur45.90/MWh, while peakload settled Eur3.78 above OTC at Eur52.03/MWh. Hour 20 settled highest on the exchange just below Eur90/MWh on par with market-coupled France for that hour.
"There is a lot of wind missing for the evening peaks and hourly prices are much higher than yesterday [Tuesday]," a trader said. "Cloud coverage is also increasing, which means there should be less solar, although that's still difficult to forecast. It also looks like that a lot of gas plants are not coming back before the weekend and the wind profile on Friday is again bearish, with wind rising in the afternoon [when demand is typically lower on a Friday]," he added.
Average wind power generation in Germany was forecast little changed at 7 GW for baseload hours Thursday, sources said. However, Thursday's wind profile is very different to Wednesday's with most wind expected during the first half of the day, remaining above 10 GW until hour 10, but falling sharply to a 2-4 GW range for afternoon and evening peaks, the source added.
Solar power output was forecast to reach peaks of 8-10 GW during midday hours despite higher cloud coverage forecast for Thursday, the source added. Solar output disappointed Wednesday, only reaching 12 GW for hour 12 despite forecasts of more than 14 GW, according to data from EEX transparency. Total installed solar capacity in Germany has risen to almost 25 GW, according to the latest data.
Temperatures in Germany will remain below the seasonal norm until the weekend before rising above the norm next week with CustomWeather forecasting Dusseldorf at 3 degrees Celsius below the norm Thursday, but 4 C above by Monday, with sources adding that the impact of temperatures on demand is now only marginal.
On the curve, April base rebounded 45 euro cents to Eur44/MWh, while Cal 13 base gained 75 euro cents from a three-week-low to trade at Eur52.35/MWh just before 12:00 London time.