Britain's total energy supply from renewable sources is set to double to more than 30 percent between 2020 and 2030 if the government reaches its climate and renewable energy policy targets, the National Grid said on Tuesday.
Renewable energy generation is set to rise from 232 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2020 to 474 TWh between 2020 and 2030, a share of 33 percent of total supply, Britain's grid operator said in its 'Gone Green Scenario', which is part of its UK Future Energy Scenarios published on Tuesday.
During the same period, Britain's total energy demand is set to drop by nearly 5 percent from 1,471 terawatt-hours (TWh) to 1,402 TWh.
In such a scenario, National Grid said it expected wholesale electricity prices to rise from around 5 pence per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2010 to over 10 pence a kWh by 2020, adding they would "continue to track gas prices, with the proportion of gas-fired generation remaining high for the majority of the forecast period."
National Grid also said it expected costs of carbon during phase 3 (2012 to 2020) of the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to increase.
In the Gone Green scenario, National Grid assumes the renewable target for 2020 and the emissions targets for 2020, 2030 and 2050 would all be reached.
It said it expected economic recovery to average a moderate 2.3 percent annually between 2011 and 2026 in this scenario, with fiscal austerity acting as a drag on the positive impact of stronger exports.
POWER
In its Gone Green Scenario, National Grid said it expected the first new nuclear reactors to be commissioned in 2019/2020, the majority of existing coal-fired power plants to close by 2023, but 4 gigawatt (GW) of clean coal (carbon capture and storage) to connect by that time too.
The report also said it expected existing gas-fired plants to close at around 25 years of age, and a total of 13 GW of new conventional gas plants to connect.
"The build-up of wind generation reaches 26 GW of wind capacity in 2020 (17 GW offshore) and 47 GW (37 GW offshore) in 2030," the report said, adding marine power generation would reach 4 GW in 2030.
GAS
Because of falling domestic gas production and stagnating pipeline supplies from other European sources, National Grid said the UK would become increasingly dependent on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
"LNG imports are shown to plateau at about 40 bcm (billion cubic metres) or 70 percent of capacity," the report said.
"At these utilisation rates additional LNG import capacity may be needed; if it is not built some of the current LNG supply flexibility may be reduced."
Due to the global nature of LNG trading, National Grid said its LNG outlook had a high degree of uncertainty.
POST 2030
Between 2030 and 2050, National Grid said the UK would likely transform into a low carbon economy, but electricity demand would be up sharply due to a broad use of electric cars.
"By 2050 the UK has transformed into a low carbon economy with significant reductions in fossil fuel use for electricity generation, heating and transport with the latter two delivered by a significant electrification process," the report said.
"Due to electrification of large portions of the heat and transport sectors, electricity generation has increased by over 50 percent from today."
Gas demand, by contrast, would be less than half today's and primarily used for power generation, high temperature heat in industry, and as a peak heating/balancing fuel, according to National Grid.
OTHER SCENARIOS
Under a more pessimistic scenario, the report provides more conservative assumptions of renewable generation growth.
In terms of generation connected to an electricity distribution network, England and Wales will see less than 100 megawatts in renewable capacity built to 2030 while Scotland could see less than 40 MW.
Wind capacity is expected to rise from the current level of 2.1 GW to 3.1 GW by 2030, with output rising from 5.4 TWh to 7.8 TWh over the same period.
In its 'Slow Progression' scenario there is a slower build up of lower carbon generation and a greater reliance on gas-fired plants.
The scenario also assumes slower advances with regard to new technology, with carbon capture and storage (CCS) proving to be uneconomical for large scale coal plants.
National Grid's most optimistic scenario of 'Accelerated Growth' assumes rapid build-up of offshore wind due to expanded supply-chains, higher carbon prices and strong government stimulus.
Under this model, a significant chunk of coal plants close due to environmental legislation and age, but gas plant lifespans are extended to backstop huge new wind capacity.
The build-up of wind generation reaches 42 GW of wind capacity in 2020 (33 GW offshore) and 59 GW (49 GW offshore) in 2030.
