Resources in the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator are anticipated to adequately serve load this summer, although the variability of growing amounts of wind on the system presents potential issues, MISO said Tuesday.
There is no way to guarantee the availability of wind capacity at peak usage times, MISO said in its summer reliability assessment. MISO's assessment of available capacity contains 765 MW of wind expected to be network deliverable on peak, which is 7% of MISO's nameplate wind capacity.
The shift from coal to natural gas resources in MISO due to air quality standards and economics causes "significant reliability challenges in the future requiring the grid operator to work closely with regulators and other state officials," MISO said in a press release.
"Those challenges include evolving federal energy policy, construction and operational costs for new generation as older units retire; improvements in and widespread adoption of technology such as carbon capture and sequestration; and natural gas/electricity harmonization," MISO said.
As for capacity forecasts, they are down due to the exit from MISO of First Energy on June 1, 2011, and Duke Energy Ohio and Kentucky on January 1. Total projected capacity to serve load during summer peak conditions is 114,475 MW, including 3,462 MW of external resources and 3,523 MW of behind-the-meter generation. MISO's nameplate capacity was reduced by 5.5% to 127,493 MW, with Duke's exit taking away 5,719 MW.
"During the anticipated peak hour, MISO expects adequate resources to serve load, with a 27.4% planning reserve margin," MISO said. "It is always possible for a combination of higher loads, higher forced outage rates, fuel limitations, low water levels and other factors to lead to curtailment of firm load: however, this is a low probability event for the 2012 summer."
MISO has been vocal about the reliability effects of large amounts of coal generation, but because of Environmental Protection Agency timelines, the regulations will not have an impact this summer, MISO said.
Load-serving entity non-coincident projected demand dropped 3.7% to 98,957 MW compared to last year, although existing membership load forecasts grew by 1%, MISO said. The planning reserve margin is 27.4%, exceeding the required margin of 16.7%.
MISO added that it expects no transmission-related issues during the summer, and no foreseeable operations-related issues.
