The last quarter of 2011 saw a 23% rise in the European solar photovoltaic (PV) market, creating short-term optimism in the industry, according to NPD Solarbuzz.
The surge was amplified by the slowdown in solar PV module price decline over the past month. But the flip-side of the success is that it could accelerate the tightening of solar PV incentive policies that is gripping Europe, most notably in the key German market and most recently in Spain with announcement of a moratorium on new renewable energy plants.
In the first quarter of 2012 European solar PV demand is forecast to show an increase of 10% year-on-year. Belgium, France, Spain, and Greece will have their highest quarterly shares, and the UK could accelerate into a short-term boom in Q1'12 depending on the legal ruling on incentive tariffs.
Major cuts in solar incentives and a weak project financing environment were offset by collapsing solar PV module prices, leading the European market to grow 18% year-on-year in 2011.
The fact that factory gate prices fell continuously through 2011 caused developers to install as late as possible (and before the announced tariff reductions in 2012, particularly in Germany). In addition, funding scheme control mechanisms failed to react in time in major markets such as Germany, Italy, and France.
Furthermore, the unusually mild autumn and early winter, especially in Germany, meant that market activity was hardly constrained by weather conditions toward year-end.
