China’s rapid solar expansion is expected to slow this year for the first time since 2019, as the industry’s growth moderates, according to an industry association forecast on Thursday.
New solar capacity added in 2025 is expected to range from 215 gigawatts (GW) in a conservative scenario to 255 GW in a more optimistic outlook, said Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association.
That would be an 8% to 23% drop from record 277.57 GW installations seen last year.
Wang attributed the expected slowdown to 2024’s high base and the introduction of a new power pricing mechanism in June, which will require new renewable plants to sell power on a market basis. This shift is expected to “complicate” future revenue forecasts and increase uncertainty for investors.
Local governments still need to clarify how they plan to implement the new policy – meaning there will be a wait-and-see period, he said.
Still, rising power consumption driven by electric vehicles, data centers, 5G networks and other emerging industries would continue to support demand for solar, according to Wang.
